Medical Devices: The Next Big Trend?
Andrew Mickey writes about health care sector in seeking alpha
The market’s main focus is on what the latest government plan will look like when it’s revealed later this week (talk about dramatically shortened time horizons). But hey, this was expected. We knew the stimulus plan wasn’t worth much, and frankly, hopes of a government-orchestrated solution having any impact in a few months time were just irrational. But this is just what we’ve been waiting for.
As you’ll soon see, a very strong pocket of strength is forming in one sector, and it will be safe to jump in soon. It’s shaping up just as we’ve been expecting, but first we should go over a few areas the markets will be forced to “reckon” with over the next few months.
A few months ago, we questioned whether the markets really priced in 9% to 10% unemployment. It looks like the market is starting to get its first glimpse of what it will look like, and it doesn’t like what it sees.
There’s practically no reason to get excited about anything over the short term, and the analyst community (which seems like it’s always the last one to realize how bad things really are) is feeding a very hungry bear.
Over the weekend, Howard Silverblatt, an analyst for Standard & Poor’s, stated:
This is the worst; after the sixth quarter of negative growth, it will be the first quarter ever of negative earnings.
That’s just one realization the market has to go through yet. However, another, potentially bigger problem exists.
An Undeniable Pocket of Strength
There’s no side skirting this one. It’s ugly out there and it’s getting worse, with state budget deficits and a federal stimulus package doomed for failure, slowly but surely, the market is realizing the seriousness of the situation. There is, however, a good side to it all.
Remember a few weeks ago when we talked about how Barometer Capital’s little known, but highly successful David Burrows focuses on finding strength and buying it.
Well, we’re seeing a pocket of strength emerge right now. In the chart below there is a clear separation between the S&P 500 - gold line and iShares Dow Jones Medical Devices (IHI) – black line.

































